{"id":30310,"date":"2021-10-08T16:32:23","date_gmt":"2021-10-08T21:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.imsa.edu\/acronym\/?p=30310"},"modified":"2021-10-08T16:32:23","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T21:32:23","slug":"a-twenty-year-war-whats-happening-in-afghanistan-from-the-doha-agreement-to-us-withdrawal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.imsa.edu\/acronym\/2021\/10\/08\/a-twenty-year-war-whats-happening-in-afghanistan-from-the-doha-agreement-to-us-withdrawal\/","title":{"rendered":"A Twenty-Year War: What’s happening in Afghanistan, from the Doha Agreement to US withdrawal"},"content":{"rendered":"

On February 29, 2020, Donald Trump signed a peace deal<\/a> with the Taliban. The agreement stipulated that US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021. Under Joe Biden, the troops\u2019 departure was postponed, but on August 30, after nearly 20 years of fighting, the last US forces left Afghan soil.<\/p>\n

The troops\u2019 withdrawal marked the end of the nearly 20-year war in Afghanistan, which began in September 2001 following Al-Qaeda\u2019s September 11th attacks. The war was the longest in US history<\/a>. From 2001 until April<\/a>, 2,448 US service members, 66,000 Afghan national military and police members, and 46,245 Afghan civilians were killed. Among opposing fighters, there were 51,191 fatalities.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Doha Agreement  <\/b><\/p>\n

In February of 2020, representatives of the US and the Taliban met in Doha, Qatar to sign the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan<\/a>. Under the Agreement, the Taliban would prevent \u201cany group or individual, including Al-Qa\u2019ida<\/a>,\u201d from using Afghanistan as a base for operations to threaten the US or its allies and continue discussions with the Afghan government. US and allied troops\u2019 The withdrawal of US and allied troops was contingent upon Taliban action on this front.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the Agreement called for the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners of the Afghan government, though the latter was not involved in the Agreement. Two classified annexes were included in the Agreement as well, and it was later revealed that they undertook not to attack the troops of the US or its allies and to avoid \u201chigh-profile attacks<\/a>,\u201d such as those that would target the country\u2019s provincial capitals, from the Taliban.<\/p>\n

Initially, the US was to decrease the number of troops in Afghanistan from 13,000 to 8,600 by July 2020 and completely withdraw from the country by May 2021. Additional stipulations of the agreement further reduced US presence and laid a framework to support the Afghan economy thereafter.<\/p>\n

The goal of the Agreement was an ultimate ceasefire, but such was reliant upon both sides\u2019 compliance with the Agreement. Discussions between the Taliban and the Afghan government were scheduled to start within a month of the Agreement\u2019s signing. However, former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani refused to release the 5,000 Taliban prisoners as required. In response, the Taliban began a series of attacks on Afghan security forces, with the US then launching an airstrike targeting Taliban territory.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Peace Negotiations<\/b><\/p>\n

On March 10, 2020, Ghani conceded to the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners under pressure from the US; by May, the US had followed through with reducing the number of troops on Afghan soil, despite the Taliban’s further violence after the Agreement\u2019s signing. According to a Department of Defense (DOD) report<\/a>, \u201cUS officials stated the Taliban must reduce violence as a necessary condition for continued US reduction in forces and that remaining high levels of violence could jeopardize the US-Taliban agreement…Still, the United States began to reduce its forces in Afghanistan.\u201d In August 2020, another DOD report<\/a> stated that the Taliban had reneged further: \u201cThe Taliban did not appear to uphold its commitment to distance itself from terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. UN and US officials reported that the Taliban continued to support al-Qaeda, and conducted joint attacks with al-Qaeda members against Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.\u201d<\/p>\n

On September 12, 2020, Taliban and Afghan government representatives met in Qatar following the latter\u2019s release of the remaining 5,000 Taliban prisoners. This did not preclude Taliban attacks on the Afghan government, which continued even as the representatives negotiated for peace.<\/p>\n

In November 2020, the Trump Administration announced<\/a> that the number of US troops in Afghanistan would decrease further than was demanded by the Agreement: forces in Afghanistan would number 2,500 by January 15, 2021. On the same day, the DOD reported<\/a> that negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government had come to a halt while violence had increased. In early December, however, the representatives agreed on a \u201cframework to govern peace negotiations.<\/a>\u201d Still, Taliban-inflicted violence did not cease but rather continued to increase as the group sought to increase its leverage in negotiations. The DOD again called attention<\/a> to the Taliban\u2019s failure to uphold its end of the Agreement.<\/p>\n

On January 15, 2020, as pledged, only 2,500 US troops remained in Afghanistan, marking the smallest US presence in the country since 2001. Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh responded by telling BBC<\/a> \u201cthat trusting the Taliban without putting in a verification mechanism is going to be a fatal mistake.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Biden Inherits the Agreement<\/b><\/p>\n

On February 3, 2021, the Afghanistan Study Group, tasked with recommending policy actions to ensure a peaceful transition in Afghanistan since December 2019, released a report<\/a> counseling an alteration to the Agreement. \u201cThe most important revision is to ensure the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops is based not on an inflexible timeline but on all parties fulfilling their commitments, including the Taliban.\u201d In March, Richard Clarke, commander of the US Special Operations Command, commented<\/a> in line with the DOD and Study Group, saying, \u201cIt is clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce the violence.\u201d<\/p>\n

On March 25, 2021, Biden expressed during a press conference<\/a> that meeting the May 1st withdrawal date may pose difficulties. He went on to acknowledge his precarious position, given the Taliban\u2019s failure to adhere to the Agreement and his ambitions to call US troops back from Afghanistan. \u201cThe question is: How and in what circumstances do we meet that agreement that was made by President Trump to leave under a deal that looks like it\u2019s not being able to be worked out to begin with? How is that done? But we are not staying a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n

On April 14, 2021, Biden declared that it was \u201ctime to end the forever war.\u201d He announced that all troops would leave Afghanistan by September 11th. In his speech<\/a>, he said he believed \u201cendless American military force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan government.\u201d Further, he claimed the US had achieved its goal in Afghanistan, \u201cto ensure Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland again.\u201d Biden then confirmed his intention to adhere to the Agreement, though not precisely, stating that the final troop withdrawal would begin May 1st. Finally, Biden called attention to the 300,000 Afghans trained and equipped by the US, saying that they would \u201ccontinue to fight valiantly, on behalf of the Afghans, at great cost.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Taliban statement<\/a> followed on April 15, 2021. If US forces were not completely withdrawn by May 1st, it said, the Taliban would not be unfounded in taking \u201cevery necessary countermeasure, hence the American side [would] be responsible for all future consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mid-May 2021, the DOD reported<\/a> increases in violent Taliban activity, observing that the Taliban seemed to be working with Al-Qaeda to prepare \u201clarge-scale offensives.\u201d On the same day as the report\u2019s release, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, claimed<\/a> that an immediate Taliban takeover upon US withdrawal would be unlikely, thinking more probable a \u201clong war\u201d if the Taliban did pursue military victory. \u201cAfghan security forces will fight,\u201d he said, “other Afghans will fight, neighbors will come to support different forces.\u201d<\/p>\n

On June 8, 2021, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told<\/a> Foreign Policy that the group\u2019s objective was to institute an \u201cIslamic government\u201d upon the departure of foreign forces. \u201cWe will be compelled,\u201d he said, \u201cto continue our war to achieve our goal.\u201d Later in the month, Trump, who had previously criticized Biden\u2019s postponement of US withdrawal, boasted<\/a> that Biden could not halt what Trump had initiated in Doha: \u201cThey couldn\u2019t stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop the process.\u201d He went on to claim that if US troops stayed, they would stay for \u201canother 21 years, then…another 50;\u201d yet without them, the Afghan government \u201cwould not last.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US Withdraws, the Afghan Government Falls<\/b><\/p>\n

By July 6, 2021, the US had withdrawn from Bagram Airfield, the largest in Afghanistan. Two days later, Biden shortened the withdrawal timeline<\/a>, marking August 31st as the deadline for the departure of the last US troops.<\/p>\n

The condensed schedule came with an acknowledgment that the Taliban was \u201cat its strongest militarily since 2001,\u201d though Biden told Americans a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan following US withdrawal was \u201cnot inevitable.\u201d Later in July, Trump again made boasts at a rally, this time claiming<\/a> that when he was in office, he and the Taliban \u201chad a real understanding,\u201d while relations between Biden and the Taliban were \u201cgoing wild over there.\u201d<\/p>\n

On August 6, the Taliban took control of Nimroz province despite the Agreement. Nine days later, on August 15, Taliban fighters entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Ghani fled the country as US helicopters evacuated diplomats from the American embassy via helicopter. The Taliban assumed control of Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

On August 16, Biden announced in a speech<\/a> that he did \u201cnot regret [his] decision to end American\u2019s warfighting in Afghanistan.\u201d He deflected blame for the Afghan government\u2019s collapse: \u201cIf anything, the developments of the past week reinforced that ending US military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision.\u201d<\/p>\n

The next day, Mujahid promised in a press conference<\/a> that the Taliban\u2019s government would be \u201cIslamic and inclusive.\u201d He went on to pledge that in \u201careas where there are embassies, there will be complete security. Therefore all foreign countries and your representatives, your embassies, your missions, international organisations, aid agencies, I would like to assure you that we will not allow anybody to do anything against you.\u201d He added that the Taliban had \u201cpardoned anyone, all those who had fought against [them]…We don\u2019t want any internal enemies and external enemies.\u201d In return, Mujahid requested that the international community \u201crecognize international boundaries and interactions,\u201d saying, \u201cWe have the right to act on the basis of our religious principles and rules and regulations; it\u2019s the right of Afghans.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the \u201cissue of women,\u201d Mujahid stated that the Taliban is \u201ccommitted to the rights of women within the framework of Sharia. Our sisters, our men have the same rights; they will be able to benefit from their rights.\u201d However, he then elaborated: \u201cThey can have activities in different sectors and different areas on the basis of our rules and regulations: educational, health and other areas.\u201d He then expressed the Taliban\u2019s wish to revitalize Afghanistan\u2019s economy, as well as the organization\u2019s hope for the international community\u2019s help in doing so.<\/p>\n

On August 26, the Kabul airport was attacked by two suicide bombers and shooters as thousands attempted to evacuate. Nearly 200 Afghans and 13 US service members<\/a> were killed. The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility.<\/p>\n

On August 29, a US drone strike<\/a> targeted a car driven by an aid worker. The man\u2019s family, including children, was on board. He was wrongfully suspected of having been involved in the Kabul attack.<\/p>\n

The last US planes departed Afghanistan on August 30, with the Americans and allies evacuated numbering upwards of 120,000<\/a>.  When they did, the US\u2019 twenty-year war in Afghanistan came to an end, the Taliban celebrated its assumption of \u201cfull independence,\u201d and Afghanistan entered a \u201cnew era of painful uncertainty.<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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