Is Official Taiwanese Independence On the Horizon?

The Current Events of Taiwan

Taiwan is a complicated entity. Many countries don’t officially recognize it, but Taiwan still considers itself independent from mainland China, despite offers from China to integrate the island under the “One China” policy, like the “One country, two systems” setup with Hong Kong.

Taiwan is a majority Mandarin and Hokkien-speaking island of approximately 23 million people located off the southeastern coast of China and north of the Philippines. Since Taiwan’s development as the Republic of China, it has been in constant tension with mainland China over claims of Taiwanese independence and Chinese sovereignty. In response to continued defiance of Chinese claims of sovereignty, China has threatened forceful annexation of the island if necessary, with many countries already ending ties with Taiwan, except for countries such as Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, and Paraguay.

The island is not a member of the UN due to its expulsion from the organization in 1971. This political isolation has left Taiwan to be recognized under different names, such as “Chinese Taipei” in the Olympics, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation). The name was given to the island during the Nagoya Resolution of 1979 to have China and Taiwan recognize each other as separate entities in international events.

The Timeline Towards Taiwan’s Current Condition

Ever since the Nationalist Party (also known as the Kuomintang) retreated to Taiwan after its loss to the Communist Party in the Chinese Civil War, relations between the two entities have remained complicated. China has remained persistent in its claims of Taiwan as a “breakaway territory” that must be integrated with China, with force if necessary. 

China has offered formal talks to Taiwan to discuss their conditions further, but since the election of the current president, Tsai Ing-wen, China has ended these formal talks. China believed that the president was a separatist, as President Tsai rejected China’s sovereignty claims, believing that only the Taiwanese people could decide Taiwan’s future.

Taiwan’s Appearance at the APEC Summit

The APEC Summit 2023 was held in San Francisco, hosting countries such as China, the USA, Japan, Chile, and Canada. Taiwan’s involvement in the summit marks a major possibility of the island’s re-entry into global politics after being isolated in world affairs. Despite the significance of Taiwan’s involvement in this summit in its relations with mainland China, the Taiwanese delegate, Morris Chang, founder of the Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC, reported discussions with US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, but none with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The head of Taiwan’s National Security Council, Wellington Koo, mentions that Chang did not have any messages from President Tsai to give to President Xi and mentions that everything should happen naturally.

In addition to talks with American officials, Chang reports discussions with more than 10 APEC leaders, including Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Chang reports that the discussions focused on peace and economic development, supply chains, and semiconductor production. Semiconductors are one of the most important components of the Taiwanese economy, with many Taiwanese companies being semiconductors, including TSMC and Asus.

Actions of the Chinese Government Against Taiwan

The Sunday after the APEC Summit, Taiwan reported an increase in military activity over the Taiwan Strait, a small body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported that nine Chinese planes had been detected flying over the median line in the Taiwan Strait, the unofficial border between the two entities.

Even though the US has no military treaty with Taiwan, the US is still obligated to come to the defense of the island should China choose to exert military force in an invasion. Another layer to the circumstances is that the US is one of the biggest suppliers of military supplies to Taiwan. With the US’ obligation to defend Taiwan and its solidified alliances with countries such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, the region becomes very complicated for the Chinese military to take further action besides aerial drills.