The Iowa Caucus: What Does the Race Look Like?

On January 15th, 2024, the Iowa Caucus for the Republican presidential nomination commenced. The former president, Donald Trump, secured a decisive victory with 51%, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 30%. Right off the bat, a surprising result was the former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s third-place performance with 19% of the votes. Lastly, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy rounded off the Iowa Caucuses with 8% of the votes. Despite Trump’s legal issues, including 91 criminal charges and a civil court finding against him, the results highlight his sustained popularity within the party, but this result was no surprise. 

What was unexpected, however, was the swift exit of Vivek Ramaswamy and endorsement for Trump, for which the Washington Post writes, “The exit could bolster Trump further, given that Ramaswamy geared his campaign toward Trump supporters.” While Vivek promised an impactful campaign, the numbers showed otherwise, ultimately making him the first loser in the presidential race. 

One of the most interesting performances in the Iowa Caucuses came from Nikki Haley. Most reports agree that Ms. Haley did not meet her optimistic expectations; however, this is not to be mistaken for a subpar performance. Haley still had an impressive finish just behind DeSantis by acknowledging anti-Trump sentiments and building a coalition of educated Republicans; however, experts argued that her following performance in New Hampshire was key to her success; Nikki lost momentum for her pre-New Hampshire plans due to media criticism and calculation mishaps, according to the New York Times, in which Trump demonstrated his resilience once more with another victory. Haley’s campaign is now completely focused on South Carolina, where she believes her home state may be the advantage she needs to bounce back. 

Despite his second-place finish, Ron DeSantis had an ambiguous result in the Iowa Caucuses. He struggled to gain traction from this position, and it seemed as though DeSantis could only endure as opposed to making strides. His 130 million-dollar campaign came to an end shortly after January 21st, the second casualty in the presidential race. 

The Iowa Caucus results are far from the last word on the Republican nominees, as the caucuses historically have a poor record of predicting the eventual Republican nominee and the unique nature of the caucus system limits its broader significance. Coming up on February 24th, the South Carolina Primary will be a key performance for Nikki Haley to make a comeback after New Hampshire and possibly turn the tides in this intriguing presidential race.