Written by: Aditya Hansoty

On November 15, 2022, the global population officially reached 8 billion according to a projection from the United Nations.  While it is unsure if November 15 is really the exact date the earth’s population reached 8 billion, as Patrick Gerland, the head demographer at the UN Population Division in New York City, says, “It is a crude approximation that is more of a symbolic finding…we may have passed it, or it may be a little later, but it’s around this time that humanity is reaching 8 billion”(Adam, 2022). Although an approximation, this assessment may be the most reliable estimate the UN has produced to date. Recently, the organization switched from quinquennial to annual intervals for analyzing data. Furthermore, the ability and capacity of many countries to collect statistics has steadily improved in recent decades. In addition to being a cause for celebration, the 8 billion landmark also brings important responsibilities and highlights relating to social, economic, and environmental goals.

Contributing Factors in Population Rise 

It has been a mere 12 years since the population was 7 billion, and less than a century after the planet held 2 billion people, as shown in Figure 1. The reason for this unprecedented change is the result of a staggering increase in human longevity, owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene, and medicine, as well as high and persistent levels of fertility in major countries. 

 Birthrates have been steadily declining from the 1950s, where there were nearly 5 births per every woman, to the present day, where it has dropped to around 2.39 births per woman. However for every 1000 births, there are about 7.748 deaths. This birth to death rate ratio explains why the population has increased so dramatically, even though the birth rate has decreased. 

Figure 1

The size of the world population over the last 12,000 years

Source: bluesyemre

The Future of the Earth’s Population

Demographers use these factors and data to predict the Earth’s population for the foreseeable future. According to the UN, the world population will plateau at 10.9 billion in 2100, while other groups expect the population to hit only 9.7 billion during the 2070s (Adam, 2022). While it is heavily debated at what point Earth’s population will peak, it is agreed that at some point in time, it will in fact start declining. This decrease is due to the predicted fall of fertility rates, majorly impacting the population. “If you make even relatively small adjustments in these fertility-rate trajectories it accumulates, and suddenly a big country can have 100 million people more 80 years from now,” says Tomáš Sobotka, a population researcher at the Vienna Institute of Demography (Adam, 2022).

Figure 2

Estimated Earth’s Population in the near future

Source: Nature

Conclusion

November 15, 2022 will be remembered as a historic landmark for humankind, and is an opportunity for people to celebrate the advancements and improvements the species has made, but also to be prepared to face new problems together as the human race. It was believed that the ever increasing amount of people would lead to collapse of society, but because of technological improvements, energy exploration and production, and revolutions in agriculture, worldwide catastrophe has been averted. This success will hopefully continue as the population forever changes. 

References and Sources

Adam, D. (2022, November 15). The world population just hit 8 billion and here’s how it will continue to grow. Scientific American. Retrieved November 17, 2022, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-population-just-hit-8-billion-and-heres-how-it-will-continue-to-grow/

Adam, D. (2022, November 15). World population hits eight billion – here’s how researchers predict it will grow. Nature News. Retrieved November 25, 2022, from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03720-6#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIf%20you%20make%20even%20relatively,the%20Vienna%20Institute%20of%20Demography.

Adam, D. (2021, September 21). How far will global population rise? researchers can’t agree. Nature News. Retrieved November 17, 2022, from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02522-6 

Gasparini, A. (2022, November 15). The world population has now reached 8 billion. Science News. Retrieved November 17, 2022, from https://www.sciencenews.org/article/world-population-8-billion-humans-earth 

The size of the world #population over the last 12.000 years. bluesyemre. (2020, December 21). Retrieved November 25, 2022, from https://bluesyemre.com/2020/12/21/the-size-of-the-world-population-over-the-last-12-000-years/ 

United Nations. (n.d.). Day of 8 Billion. United Nations. Retrieved November 17, 2022, from https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion